Serial Episode 12 - What We Know

In the finale of the season, SK wraps up the series the only way she can, providing some new information, providing an update, and noting that the facts still are not known.  There have been articles wondering how the series will conclude and whether it will live up to expectations.  But I'm not sure if anyone enthralled with the story was expecting a concrete resolution.  It just didn't seem possible.  But if you wanted something more definitive, at least the Funny or Die parody video was thoroughly enjoyable.

Onto the recap:

Don's Story:  The first new major development SK reports is that she spoke with Don.  He contacted her recently and didn't want tape to be played, but ok'ed recounting their conversation.  A few tidbits came up:

• Hae was at his house late the night before in a town north of Baltimore city.  She wanted to play hooky the next day to hang out with him, but didn't want to make it an unexcused absence.  He told her she should go to school and that he had to work that day anyway.  They made plans to meet after Hae's shift ended at 10pm that night.
• The night before is not new.  The thought of her wanting to play hooky is an interesting aside - would this have been avoided if she had played hooky?  Also, they were supposed to meet at 10pm.  But she also wanted to stop by and see him at work/leave a note.  So she was clearly head over heels.
• SK mentions a note with Don's name on it was found in Hae's car.  It read:
  "Hey cutie, sorry I couldn't stay.  I have to go to a wrestling match at Randalls Town High.  But I promise to page you as soon as I get home, ok?  Till then take care and drive safely.  Always.  - Hae"
• Don said he didn't know about the note.
• The note is interesting because of the timing.  So when would he have written the note?  It would make sense that the note would have been written after she got to Owings Mill and saw Don wasn't there.  And that would suggest she was intercepted shortly thereafter.  Or she could have written the note at school forgetting Don was working at a different location.  But the "sorry I couldn't stay" is odd.  She couldn't stay where?  At the Lens Crafters to wait for him?  At his house the night before?
• Don tells SK that he immediately thought he would be a suspect.  He immediately made sure he knew where he was.  After being asked questions, he traced his steps and remembered where he was when.  SK notes that this is different from Adnan's reaction, but also notes Adnan was only 17 and high.  
• Interesting distinction between the two.  I tend to think Don's reaction is more reasonable, but I'm not a teenager.  Would Don's older age factor into it?  Or would his mom or someone have sat him down to think carefully about the day (whereas Adnan would not have had that at home since he had kept Hae a secret from his parents)?
• Don said he doesn't remember calling Hae after the 13th.  He wondered if she had gone to CA.  It wasn't that he didn't care, but he just didn't know what he would do.
• Now this is interesting.  One idea is that he only dated her for a couple of weeks and if she ran off to CA or something, he wasn't as invested.  But then he tells SK that he did love Hae and she had given him confidence.  Unclear if he is speaking after 15 years and knowing she had died then.  Or if he is recounting how he felt in the moment.  I suspect his feelings are colored by hindsight.
• SK notes Don's alibi is solid.  Don was filling in for someone at a different branch in Hunt Valley that day.  Computerized time card has him arrive at 9:02 am, take lunch from 1:10 to 1:42, and leave at 6pm.  But she notes the manager of that store was Don's mom.
• Don said he didn't know about the progress of the investigation.  Was worried he was a suspect.  Didn't know about Jay until hearing the podcast.  
• This is where the coincidences just seem to get absurd.  Finally someone has a rock solid alibi... wait, scratch that.  Even this alibi can't be 100% trusted because his mom was the manager.
• He recalled meeting Adnan in the parking lot after Hae had a car accident.  Don said they had a perfectly nice conversation.  He was very polite, articulate.  They joked around but felt like a typical sizing up - typical of the ex-boyfriend meeting the new boyfriend.  Adnan had said something to the effect of wanting to make sure Don was an okay guy.  Hae's diary places this meeting on Dec. 23.  At trial, this was stated as having happened in January.  
• Seems pretty straightforward.  Don seems as he is being very fair and balanced at this point.  He is either spectacularly objective or he had doubts that Adnan was really the killer.  But after hearing the podcast, perhaps that colored his understanding of the case hearing how flimsy the State's case really was.
• Don's testimony at both trials was bland.  Don said Urick pulled him into a back room and yelled at him for not making Adnan sound "creepy."  SK says she asked Urick about this but he said he was not allowed to talk about the case.  
• At this point, I think we can all agree Kevin Urick is a scumbag.  After this entire experience, the only thing I can say definitively is that Urick is a villain in this story.  He crossed ethical boundaries, tried to tamper and influence witness testimony, provided an attorney for his star witness getting a sweetheart plea deal, and resorted to race baiting and stereotypes to secure a conviction.  

On balance, it's not clear that anything new came from the discussion with Don.  I suppose the note was new, but this was ancillary to the Don conversation.  But it was an effective discussion to close off one hanging thread.  Even though SK never got Jay or a full conversation with Jenn or even Stephanie to talk, checking Don off the list did satisfy something in the narrative.  

And I think it's safe to assume that Don wasn't involved.  The note seems like it would be bad for him, and he would have gotten rid of it.  He was working on the other side of the city during this time.  So even if he was able to step out for a few minutes, leaving for an hour to go to the other side of the city would have been noticed.  

Josh - The other new person was Josh, a friend of Jay's who worked with him at the porn video store.  They were friendly but not that close.  He would occasionally give Jay a ride.  They'd hang out and smoke up.  

• On the night Jay was picked up by police, he had called Josh because he didn't want to be alone at the store.  He wasn't afraid of the police but something else.  He was afraid people were after him.  On that night, there was a van parked across the street at the Amtrak commuter rail station parking lot that freaked Jay out.  He didn't even want to go outside.  Josh says Jay didn't mention the name but learned through the podcast that it was Adnan.  SK presses Josh asking how he knew it was Adnan if Jay didn't say the name.  Josh admits it could have been somebody else, but whoever Jay was afraid of must have been the person who did it.  
• This is the most striking part of the story.  As Josh tells it, Jay was freaking out for his safety.  But it just doesn't seem like Adnan would be the source of this real fear.  Besides, as Jay puts it, it was the threat to Stephanie that kept him in line.  So why would Jay be afraid for his own safety here.  It just doesn't add up.  This may be the strongest support for the unknown third party theory - that the actual murderer was someone who really was a hardened criminal who Jay actually would be afraid of.  It explains Jay's fear.  It explains the narrative gymnastics of the every-shifting story.  It explains why Jay would cop to helping dispose of the body.
• SK directly asks Josh if Jay was afraid of someone with Pakistani relatives.  Josh says yeah, yeah, he said it was someone who was Middle Eastern.  He also says Jay told him it was the ex-boyfriend.
• Not sure if this is SK's presentation, but Josh just didn't seem convincing here.  Not that he is intentionally lying, but this may be another issue of confirmation bias.  Jay says Adnan did it, so Josh is projecting Adnan as the source of this fear.  Also, Pakistan is not in the Middle East.  I find it highly unlikely Jay would not have told Josh the name but said (erroneously) that the guy was Middle Eastern.
• Josh says Jay told him he was involved, almost bragging that he helped bury the body.  Josh didn't take him seriously and thought he was making it up.  He did that sort of thing.  
• This fits the Jay is a poser theme.  He's more bark than bite.  Maybe this fits the third party theory.  After he helps the real big bad dispose of the body, he thinks he's a big deal now.  So he feels confident enough to talk himself up.  Once the police start closing in on him, now he realizes that he might be in danger, so that bravado is gone and fear is the motivating factor.
• The version he heard was similar to the version that Chris recounted.  Jay was somewhere when Adnan came to him for help.  He's clear Best Buy was not mentioned because Josh went there often and would have remembered.  Thought Chris's pool hall story could be right.  Was under the impression it had gone down later in the day and not mid afternoon.  
• If this is true, that's two different people he told the same story to.  Yet this is different than the story he told Jenn.  Not sure if there's anything definitive, but it seems to be another strike against the State's theory of the case.
• Josh didn't understand why Jay would help Adnan.  It's one thing to not snitch, but something entirely different to pick up a shovel and help bury the body.  
• Amen.  It does not make sense.  What would Adnan have over Jay to force him to take this drastic, extreme measure?  

So what to make of Josh?  He provides something we never had before - an account of Jay's behavior before being picked up by the police.  It seems that Jay really was afraid of someone, but I have a hard time believing this person was Adnan.  That just doesn't fit.  And if you look at Jay's March 15th statement to the police, it seems like he was afraid of someone (but again, not sure if I buy it is Adnan):

Ritz:   He gets in her car and your driving his car. At that point there‘s a phone booth on the other side of the building. And your driving off the parking lot, why don‘t you stop your car and say, call the police, and say someone had just committed a murder. There's a body in the trunk of the car?

Jay:  I don’t know, I just feared and I, I, and you don’t understand like, like how it is.

Ritz:  Who are you afraid of, if you make an anonymous phone call, you give a description of her car.  Give a description of [Adnan] and say there’s a body in the trunk of that car.  You give them the tag number of the car.

Jay:  Can we stop for a second.

Ritz:  Yes.

Jay:  A few seconds.

Ritz:  Well if you have any questions you can ask me on tape.

Jay:  I don’t understand this line of questioning (inaudible)

Ritz:  I’m trying to understand why you go through all this and.

Jay:  First it was just like shook and then after that ah, I was part of it, so I mean I couldn’t just, you know what I mean. I had just as much not called, like you said before when he said he was gonna kill her to the point of when I was standing there looking at her in the trunk I didn't call to the point of, I dugged the hole, you know what I mean. It's, it's all those looping together if I didn't step out at one I couldn't just say well her it is in the middle, I'm just gonna call the cops.

Ritz:  Oh I understand what he has over you or if your involved in this from the very beginning.  If he paid you any money to help him ah, if your were part of the conspiracy part. Once he's planning all this because it took a lot of careful planning. He had this planned out cause you made mention of the fact that when he's strangling her, in her vehicle that he's worried about her scratching him to get any tissue or any ah, (inaudible) evidence underneath her fingernails?

Jay:  Yes.

Ritz:  So he’s thought about all this.

Jay:  Yes.

Ritz:  He's thought about it to the point were he gives you his car, his cell phone, he tells you were to meet him, calls you to the location, has you following him around to

ah, the parking ride over on Route 70. Ah, to the point were your involvement in, in this

is beyond belief, other than you being afraid of the police. Either he has paid you

something, or.

Jay:  Like I said he knows that I sold drugs.  I mean that was, that was, I mean that’s, he could get me locked up for that, I mean.  I’m sure if I ratted him out for [redacted] that he wouldn’t hesitate to turn me over for selling drugs.

Ritz:  I meant that’s, well I’m just trying to understand in my mind what your logic is and your way of thinking.

Jay:  Yeah I mean I wasn't just through the whole situation I, I don't deal with dead

bodies everyday man, I don't, you know what I mean that's not something I run around and look at, you know what I mean. If somebody pops a trunk and there's a blue body in there it's gonna upset me and I'm not gonna need. Like I didn’t, l don t, in my mind I don’t think to the presence of let's call the oops. It's never, that never crossed my mind. I could be getting shot at, and I wouldn't be let's call the cops.

Ritz:  In your mind and presence of your mind, does it ever occur to you to disassociate yourself and say, hey look, you know this is really serious shit here. Somebody dead in the trunk of the car, see you later?

Jay:  I tried, after I said that to him, you know fuck you I’m not helping you, but then that’s what he said to me.

Ritz:  At any point did [Adnan] ever threaten you with physically with any ah, type of weapons or anything like that?

Jay:  No weapon no (inaudible).

So a few takeaways from this exchange.  First, Jay is rattled by the question "who are you afraid of" and asks to stop the recording and then gives a nonsensical answer.  Second, he maintains that the fear was that Adnan would turn him in for selling drugs.  Third, he says Adnan didn't threaten him physically.  

Remember this is happening on March 15th, so over two weeks after the night Josh recounts.  At this point, Adnan has been arrested and is facing a murder charge.  Jay is fully cooperating with the police and testifying against Adnan.  He is giving a clean statement that the police can use against Adnan.  

So if Jay was deathly afraid of Adnan on February 28th, why isn't he taking the clear out that Adnan coerced his cooperation?  Instead, he talks about Adnan turning him in for selling drugs.  He denies that Adnan ever threatened physical harm.  It just does not add up that he was afraid that Adnan was going to get him.  

If Jay wasn't afraid of Adnan, who was he afraid of?  

Miscellaneous Items

• SK notes that their investigation suggests that an accidental butt dial lasting over 2 minutes would have been charged by AT&T in 1999.  So if the call had been made by accident and no one picked up on the other end, it would appear on the call log and on the bill.
• Makes sense.  This neuters one of the alleged "smoking guns."  Susan Simpson offers an alternate theory attaching more significance to the Nisha butt dial.
• SK notes that there were two anecdotal reports of a payphone being inside the vestibule area of the Best Buy.  And architectural plan from 1994 shows a plan for a payphone to be located there.
• This contradicts Laura's recollection from Episode 9.  And it doesn't matter for Jay's story because he says the payphone was outside.  Seeing as we're pretty sure the murder did not occur at the Best Buy, this probably isn't important.
• SK discusses the cell phone records and suggests the evidence seems to contradict both Jay's and Adnan's stories.  Maybe they're both lying.  She does note the discrepancy that the 3:21 call to Jenn's house conflicts Jay/Jenn's story that they were together until 3:45 at Jenn's house.  So SK suggests maybe Jay didn't have the phone at the time.  She also notes that it doesn't make sense Adnan would have called on a land line (to account for the lack of a 3:45 incoming call) because the whole point of Adnan giving Jay his cell phone was to call him on it to get him when the deed was done.  
• Good points, but doesn't really change anything.  It's clear the phone logs are a mess and do not corroborate Jay's story of the afternoon period.  It was interesting how SK strains to not make the most likely conclusion regarding the 3:21 call:  that Jay and Jenn are lying to give Jay an alibi.  Given how everyone agrees Jay had the phone at the time (with Jenn even saying she saw Jay with the phone at her house), it seems a stretch to suggest someone else had the phone at this time.  The simplest conclusion is that Jay was not at Jenn's house at 3:21 and that he and Jenn are lying to create an alibi.
• On the issue of motive, SK notes that Adnan was absent 2 of the first 4 days after the holidays, and Friday was a snow day.  So when Hae disappeared, this would have been the first time Adnan would see how fully Hae had moved on from him, which could have triggered the murderous response.  But SK mentions no one who knew them at the time suggested anything of the sort.  So this is merely speculation.
• It's an interesting thought but ultimately it doesn't change anything.  Motive is one of those things that shouldn't matter, but juries tend to latch on to because it's something easy to grasp and can complete the story.  There are still several steps that need to be connected to go from "Adnan was jealous of Hae's relationship with Don" to "Adnan murdered Hae."

A Series of Unfortunate Events 

SK recounts Dana's perspective on this.  She calls Dana their Spock in that she is viewing things from a logical perspective.  And her opinion is that if Adnan is innocent, he is extremely unlucky:

• It was Adnan's idea to lend his car and phone to Jay.
• Adnan asked Hae for a ride at school that day.
• The Nisha call -- even if a butt dial, that's bad luck.
• Jay's story and the cell phone records match up from 6pm on, which is also the time period in which Adnan can't account for.  

Variations of this idea have been popping up on reddit.  Often causing the poster to conclude that this means Adnan is guilty.  I disagree.

If these were all independent events, then perhaps you could attribute this more to bad luck.  But considering the situation where the prosecution of Adnan is based solely on Jay's testimony, Jay's involvement can change these occurrences from random misfortune to something else.  

First is lending the car and phone to Jay.  There was a reddit post discussing this and there was word from a former classmate who had borrowed Adnan's car and phone to run an errand.  Not sure if this was confirmed, but it suggests that Adnan was not shy about lending his car/phone out.  Also, considering this even occurred before Hae was killed, the time frame shifts.  If the decision to pin the murder on Adnan was made, one of the contributing factors for that decision could easily have been the fact Jay had Adnan's car and phone.  So if Adnan's lending the car/phone to Jay was a contributing cause of Jay's testimony then this isn't bad luck, it's taking advantage of the current situation.

Second is Adnan asking for a ride.  The witness testimony suggests that Adnan did not get a ride from Hae, so this is all moot.  If anything it goes to the idea of premeditation.  And that idea of premeditation comes from Jay's testimony.  It seems plausible that when Adnan lends his car to Jay, he could have told him to come get him after track and he can catch a quick ride with Hae if he needs to go somewhere before then.  It's plausible that by the time of the police interview, the detectives told Jay about this (based on the Officer Adcock conversation) and fed this information to play up the premeditation angle.  But in the end, the only sinister meaning behind this comes from Jay.  Besides, if Adnan's grand plan was to murder Hae by getting a ride from her, it would be dumb to be so public about asking for a ride.  The only reason we're giving this a second thought is because Jay says this was Adnan's plan.  

Third is the Nisha call.  Yes, if it's a random butt dial, it's bad luck.  Of course, if a butt dial were to happen, it is quite likely it would have been one of the pre-programmed numbers (if you remember, you simply had to press and hold one of the buttons for a few seconds to trigger the call) so the chance of it being an Adnan person is certain.  And there is the possibility that this was part of the frame job to try to draw a connection to Adnan and the phone at that time.  

And fourth is the time line of Jay's story... which is clearly tied to Jay.  Jay is the only link to the body.  It is not clear that Hae was actually buried in Leakin Park that night.  Her body was not found for weeks and it could have been left there at any point during that period.  Also Jay could control where they went in this time period.  They go to Cathy's house (his friend).  They go get weed from Patrick (Jay's connection).  They perhaps go to Leakin Park (who knows the reason, but could have been Jay's suggestion).  The idea being that if Jay is setting Adnan up, he could lead Adnan around that evening making sure to hit the spot where the body was buried, was being buried, or will be buried.  So it's not happenstance that Adnan's movements matched Jay's version of events.  Jay was there to control where they went.

So in the end, if you view these points from the perspective of Jay's influence on them, the real bad luck is Adnan having a friend like Jay who he lent his car/phone too.  Yes, that is bad luck, but it's not like a series of unrelated unfortunate events had to have happened to put Adnan in this situation.  And it certainly does not mean that Adnan must be guilty.  

Innocence Project update -SK also reports on a few developments in Adnan's case.  First, she notes that the Innocence Project filed a motion this past weekend to DNA test the samples that were collected but never tested.  In order to seek testing, they needed someone to test the sample against, and they found Ronald Lee Moore.  Moore was brought to their attention because his DNA was connected to another unsolved murder in the Baltimore area.  On Dec. 13, 1999 (exactly 11 months after Hae disappeared), a 27-year old woman named Analise (Hyoung Sook) Lee was found strangled in her apartment in Owings Mills.  Apparently Moore was a career criminal who had been released for a 14-month period starting January 1, 1999.  During that time he was connected to at least 2 rapes and 1 murder.  

SK thinks this is a long shot.  The samples may not even be viable, let along match Moore.  And where's the connection between Moore and Jay?  Enright tells her "big picture, big picture."

There was some criticism of Enright's waving off SK's legitimate concerns.  But SK really doesn't convey the point of Moore.  The point of finding Moore isn't that they necessarily think that Moore was the actual murderer (of course, it would be a tremendously fortunate coincidence if he was).  But rather they were able to find a viable alternate suspect whom they could name on their motion for testing.  This is one of those procedural hoops that they had to jump through to get the testing approved.  

And on the surface, there is a compelling case.  He was released from prison just 12 days before Hae disappeared.  He strangled a Korean woman in her apartment in Owings Mill.  Hae is Korean.  Hae may have been murdered in her car (i.e., her personal space).  Hae worked at a Lens Crafters in Owings Mills and may have been headed there to see Don/leave him a note.  And the other victim was murdered exactly 11 months after Hae disappeared.  So there's a lot of surface-level similarities to make him a viable testing candidate.  

Whether something comes of it is unknown.  I don't know the science enough to know what can happen if the match comes back negative.  Could there be ethnic indicators?  Could it be tested against others in the criminal database?  But it seems like it's a start, which may be what Enright was saying when she tells SK "big picture."

Post-Conviction Petition - SK briefly notes this is still alive and Adnan's attorney is trying to get Asia's letter back before the court.  But given that the State's time line is a mess, the alibi doesn't seem to be as major as it once was.

Stragglers - The official Serial blog posted something today with various sundries about dead ends they encountered.  Nothing really noteworthy, but the last item caught my eye.  Apparently the police had subpoenaed at least 15 other numbers.  The Serial crew has the subpoenas and some basic subscriber info, but the only detailed logs are for Yaser (Adnan's friend from the mosque) and Bilal (the youth group leader from the mosque).  Interesting how those were the only detailed logs from the police files.  It seems like the detectives were looking to turn this into some grand Muslim conspiracy.  

Adnan's departing words - Adnan only makes a brief appearance in the final episode.  He gave Enright the go ahead for the DNA testing motion because he is adamant he wants to know what happens.  

He understands that there will never be 100% evidence that proves him innocent.  But what he wanted was to take back the case and have a clean presentation, without all the "make-up" the prosecution put on it.  

He asks SK if she has an ending.  He thinks she should just go down the middle - present the story and the facts and not take a side.

SK's wrap-up - But SK declines Adnan's invitation to stay neutral.  She notes Dana is correct that Adnan was unlucky.  But she wants to focus on what actually is known.  If the phone log doesn't back up Jay's story and the Nisha call is a butt dial, the only thing that's left is Jay's story.  And that's not really a story but just the beginning of one, something not enough to send anyone, let alone a 17-year old kid, to prison for the rest of his life.  As a juror, she would acquit.  Even if she thought he had done it, she has to acquit because that is what the law requires of her.

But she is not a juror and this isn't a trial.  If asked if Adnan is innocent, she can't be sure.  But she leans towards feeling he is innocent.  She questions whether a guilty man would agree to all this.  She notes how Adnan's friends said they aren't sure he's innocent, but the Adnan they knew could never have done it.  

SK notes that when Rabia brought the case to her, she was optimistic that there would be definitive conclusion.  But she finds herself like a seasoned detective trying to shake people for just the facts.  "Because we didn't have them 15 years ago.  And we still don't have them now."  

And SK concludes the season the only way she really could.  It's clear there was not enough evidence to convict.  The jury did not consider the evidence.  They returned a guilty verdict in 2 hours after six weeks of trial.  They simply bought the State's story, felt that Jay would not lie and voluntarily admit to a crime, and didn't like that Adnan did not testify.  Juries do things like this.  That's to be expected.

For me, the worst part was the actions of the prosecutor, Kevin Urick, and his office.  To recap: 

• He offered a pro bono attorney to his star witness to "defend" him in his sweet plea deal.  
• He went out of his way to commend Jay for his cooperation to the court.  
• He interrupted a witness on the stand to prevent her from saying something damaging to his case.  
• He yelled at another witness for not lying to make the defendant sound creepy.  
• He advanced a theory of the case that was contradicted by his own star witness's testimony.  
• And he played up the spectre of religious fear mongering as the theme of his case to secure a conviction.  
• Not to mention his colleague who made up lies about a pattern of young Pakistani men murdering their girlfriends and fleeing to Pakistan.  

According to his bio on his website, it seems he left the prosecutor's office around 2002 and moved into private practice.  Good riddance.  

My Conclusion?

As to whether Adnan truly is innocent, it's impossible to tell.  I came into this thinking that he probably was guilty.  He was the only one who seemed to make sense.  But after poring over the materials and thinking through what's out there, that has changed.  So, then, what do we know?

1. We know that the murder did not happen according to the way the State told it.  Hae was not murdered in the Best Buy parking lot before 2:36pm.  
2. We know that Jay's story of what he and Adnan did after they met up does not add up.  Putting aside the 3:45pm starting point, it is riddled with inconsistencies and contradicted by the cell phone evidence.
3. We know Jay was involved somehow.  While there is the possibility he may have been fed some information about the crime by the detectives, it seems unlikely he was completely innocent and copped to something he didn't do.  
4. We know Jay wanted an alibi until 3:45, and Jenn provided the alibi for him.  
5. We know Hae was intercepted around 3:15pm.  That does not mean she was necessarily murdered by then, but something happened to her to prevent her from picking up her cousin.
6. We know Adnan and Jay were together from roughly 5-6pm for a few hours.  During this time we know they went to "Cathy's" apartment. 
7. We know that shortly after 7pm, Adnan's cell phone was in the vicinity of Leakin Park.  
8. We know either Jay or Jenn (or both) are lying about when they met up that evening.  Jay says Adnan dropped him off at home and Jenn picked him up from there.  Jenn says she met them at Westview Mall, that she saw and spoke with Adnan.
9. We know Jay was somehow compelled to help bury Hae's body.  Whether it was voluntary or out of fear, that's uncertain.  Perhaps Jay really feared for his life.  But something kept him in line and made him help.
10. We know that Jay and Adnan still hung out after January 13th.  It seems that Adnan put Jay on the phone with Nisha at some point during this time period.  

What are the possible outcomes? 

• It happened more or less like Jay said - it was Adnan, and Jay was forced into helping.  
• Based on the above factors, points 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10 seem to contradict this story in one form or another.  Whether Jay had no reason to lie about his story or the inconsistency between his and Jenn's story, or whatever, those points don't fit this scenario.  
• None of the points above seem particularly likely in this scenario either.  
• Adnan did it and Jay was more involved; essentially they did it together.  
• In this scenario, points 9 and 10 don't make sense.  I don't see why Jay would actively help in committing a murder.  And I don't see the two of them hanging out together so much after they had pulled off a murder.  
• In this scenario, points 1, 2, and 4 make a lot of sense.  He was lying to minimize his own involvement and wanted an alibi for the deed (since he knew when it occurred).
• Adnan was innocent, and Jay pointed the finger at Adnan to hide someone else's involvement.  
• Here, point 7 is the big red flag.  No reason for Adnan's phone to be near Leakin Park at this time.
• But this explains points 1, 2, and 4 (just like in scenario 2).  But it also explains 8, 9 and 10.  Adnan was not involved so Jenn and Jay couldn't get their story straight.  Jay was compelled to help because he was afraid of someone who was actually scary.  And Adnan didn't know anything was up while Jay was playing it cool.  

Ruling out scenario 1, it seems like the likely choices are Jay and Adnan did it together, or Jay and someone else did it.  Based on the fear that Josh told SK about, how Jay would get roped into this mess, I'm inclined to believe Adnan is innocent.  Yes there are some unfortunate coincidences for him that landed him in his predicament, but there are just so many holes and logical gaps there.  I just don't see it.  

What about another scenario, in which Jay and Adnan got some other person (the actual big bad) to do it.  That could also explain #9 if Jay got roped in as the go-between.  It could explain #10.  And also explain Jay's lies to minimize his own involvement...  But then what incentive does Adnan have to keep quiet to protect the other person?  Perhaps he was afraid of what this person would do to his family?  Not sure if that threat would still be present today, but if it were, I'm sure talking about this and being part of a nationwide investigation into the truth is not going to make this person happy.  

Maybe I'm being unfair to Jay.  But once you lie to the police in a murder investigation, do you have any credibility left?  There has to be a really good reason to do so, and minimizing your own involvement seems like a pretty clear reason to lie.  

While we never may know the truth about what happened, everyone can draw their own conclusions from the facts and information.  I've reached mine.  That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.